The first trading day after the Spring Festival A shares how to go?The calendar year after the data will tell you

2022-05-09 0 By

The week-long Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, and February 7 will be the first trading day after the holiday.Before the holiday, affected by the Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, tensions in Eastern Europe and other factors, the A-share market continued to pull back, the turnover gradually shrank, the overall mood of the market is weak, and after the start of the year, what will be interpreted?History is a mirror that illuminates the way forward.Looking back over the past 12 years (2010-2021, same below), the first trading day of the year has been “red and green”.China Business Network statistics show that in the 12 years, the Shanghai Composite Index only had its first trading daily rise in 4 years, and the Shenzhen Component Index only had its first trading daily rise in 3 years. It can be seen that in recent years, the probability of a “good start” is not very high.The most tragic event was the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2020. Under the influence of the epidemic, the company experienced a deep V, but it also created a “gold pit”.Of course, a “good start” does not mean a good year. For example, in 2018, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.17% on the first trading day of the year.The Shanghai Composite Index fell 24.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 34.42% in the whole year, and the Growth Enterprise Market fell 28.65% in the whole year. All stock funds were wiped out, with no positive returns and an average yield of -25.5%.Similarly, the short-term decline after the holiday does not mean that the whole year is bleak. For example, in 2020, the whole year was marked by a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 13.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 38.73%, and the GEM up 64.96%.However, if we extend the time to the past 22 years (2000-2021, the same below), we will find that the ups and downs are almost mixed. Especially from 2004 to 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index both rose on the first trading day of the year for four consecutive years.After the festival. What about before?For the past 22 years, the odds of the final trading day before the holiday have been good.The Shanghai Composite index has risen in 15 of the 22 years and fallen in only seven, and the final trading day of 2022 shared another decline.The Shenzhen component index has risen on the last trading day of the holiday in 14 of the past 22 years and fell in eight.”Is the Spring Festival to hold coins or hold shares to celebrate the festival”, the topic that investors are always happy with, actually has reference in historical data.But a reference is only a reference, and the reality is very different.February 4, The Hong Kong stock market opened, out of a good start, the Hang Seng index opened 2.48%, up to the close, the Hang Seng index rose 3.24%, at 24573.29 points, the whole day transaction OF HK $113.9 billion;The soE index rose 2.81 percent and the red chip index rose 2.40 percent.Boshi fund chairman Jiang Xiangyang believes that China’s economy is in a wide currency, wide credit, economic growth is expected to gradually stabilize the stage of recovery.The spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference is being fully implemented in all localities and departments.The earnings outlook of A large number of industries and companies is bound to gradually improve, and with improved earnings expectations, the performance of the A-share market in 2022 will be highly anticipated.China Merchants Fund believes that after the Spring Festival positive factors will gradually upward correction, negative factors will accelerate convergence, overall, after the Spring Festival A share market or is expected to gradually return to warm.Zou Xi, deputy general manager and equity investment director of Longtop Fund, said that after the stress test of the severe downturn in the real estate market, the core assets of the cycle will re-demonstrate the stability of earnings growth and thus get the opportunity to revalue.Review of coordinating editor: TaoJiYan | : li zhen | director: jun-wei wan (source: the first finance and economics)