With ticket prices up and popularity down, the Spring Festival season is tougher than expected
Article | jump, the author | – not too much looking forward to the Spring Festival of the market.The importance of the Spring Festival is self-evident, now has not only hit the annual box office of the top ten “shuluo”, has become a key battle for the cinema “continued life”.According to the full-day box office forecast conducted by Beacon Professional, the market is expected to see a slight increase on the first day of this year compared with 2021, but this is based on an increase of 9.5 yuan in average ticket prices.In addition, this year’s New Year’s Day set a new record for the number of screenings in a single day, which means more shows and more expensive tickets may end up with only a slight increase in the overall box office.”Look down on” the Spring Festival season, this year again became around the Spring Festival blockbuster hot public opinion.The average ticket price is 58.6 yuan, which has indeed become a big consumption pressure.As a result, many ordinary audiences have a certain degree of “misunderstanding” about this year’s Spring Festival, and the potential impact of high prices is that audiences may only be willing to “choose” the best purchases during the season.If the frequency of moviegoing during the Spring Festival season decreases and the audience turns to “preferential viewing,” the over-anticipated Spring Festival season will still face considerable pressure.01 cinema “re-bets” the Spring Festival season, but the pressure alarm of different cinemas is still not lifted.The Spring Festival season has long been a “life-sustaining straw” for cinemas.Especially for small and medium-sized cinemas in third and fourth tier cities, the popularity of the Spring Festival supports the survival of cinemas, and the box office of the Spring Festival accounts for a large proportion of the annual revenue.Especially after the epidemic, the operation of cinemas is under great pressure. Under the pressure of epidemic control and the decline in the number of moviegoers, cinemas will inevitably rely more on the Spring Festival.But this Spring Festival may not be so good for cinemas.First of all, compared with last year, there is still an obvious gap in the pre-sale stage of this year’s Spring Festival, and the heat is relatively low.And because of the new round of the epidemic, the mood of watching movies is not particularly high.The market environment is not ideal, deciding the Spring Festival there are certain variables.Second, the number of performances on the first day of the lunar New Year reached 533,500 (lighthouse Professional edition), a significant increase from 520,400 in 2019.This is an inevitable consequence of the further decline in the number of screens.However, the increase of the number of performances and the rapid rise of the average ticket price can support the overall market data, but it is not so for the actual profit space of the cinema.Although the market data still look objective, but the regression of the number of moviegoers and the decline of the popularity of the same period, for many theaters will inevitably face greater pressure.In particular, the policy of “Local Chinese New Year” and epidemic prevention and control have made it more difficult for cinemas to survive.For the first – and second-tier theaters that don’t take advantage of geographical location and movie-going experience, as well as the third – and fourth-tier smaller theaters that rely on the Spring Festival return to their hometowns to drive the flow of people, this year’s Spring Festival may not be easy.In the end, maybe the market will eventually save the “face” of the box office still rising compared to the same period because of ticket price increases, but it is doubtful whether the cinemas are betting on the Spring Festival, hoping that the Spring Festival box office revenue will achieve the “lining” of the continued life.For cinemas, there may still be no better way to alleviate the plight of survival.It can only be said that how to improve their competitiveness, as much as possible to attract the audience, is the king of “continued life”.But a single bet on scheduling doesn’t look like a complete turnaround.02 Ticket price rises, quench thirst?Look down upon.This is the Spring Festival this year, the public opinion of the biggest response to a keyword.That’s because the average ticket price for the first day of the Spring Festival this year was 58.6 yuan.On New Year’s Day in 2021, the average ticket price was 49.1 yuan, 45.2 yuan in 2019 and 39.2 yuan in 2018.Although the industry is optimistic about ticket prices, because domestic ticket prices are relatively large increases.But the speed of the rise is too fast, and there is not enough buffer space for ordinary viewers.Before the Spring Festival in 2018, China’s film market is still in a battle for ticket premium, especially during the Spring Festival when land is expensive.However, under the influence of various factors such as the epidemic, it is understandable from the perspective of the industry to raise prices too quickly, but there are no small hidden dangers.After all, the environment is not only affecting the operation of cinemas, for ordinary audiences, the average price of nearly 60 yuan is beyond the reasonable range of many people.In particular, due to the epidemic, ticket prices in some third – and fourth-tier cities and county-level cinemas are higher than those in first – and second-tier cities, which will inevitably lead to more cautious moviegoing choices.In fact, in 2021, in terms of the annual movie market, on the one hand, the number of moviegoers decreased by one-third compared with 2019, on the other hand, low-frequency moviegoers made more cautious choices.After all, the cost of hundreds of yuan and nearly 150 minutes of movie time will have a great influence on the driving force of ticket buying.In addition, for ultra-low frequency users who enter cinemas during the Spring Festival, the influence of “Extremely expensive Spring Festival” will also hinder their continuous moviegoing on weekdays.From the point of view of a single piece, the current price rise is an inevitable choice.In particular, the market head effect intensification, in the case of general regression of moviegoers, the only way to increase the price of customers.However, from the long-term perspective of the industry, especially after the epidemic, the whole film industry is facing great pressure. Ticket prices should not be allowed to rise wildly. Once the audience’s moviegoing frequency continues to decrease, it will quench the thirst of the whole market.In addition, an analysis of last year’s Spring Festival season and this year’s, the assassination of The Novelist was the most expensive ticket on average last year, followed by Detective Chinatown 3 and Order of The Lord.Compared with other theaters, these films are relatively heavy industry blockbuster, and the relatively high ticket prices are understandable.But during this year’s Spring Festival, the average ticket price for “The Watergate Bridge” reached nearly 61 yuan.Although the audiovisual production of “Watergate Bridge of Chojin Lake” belongs to the “ceiling” level of domestic films, the ticket price of nearly 61 yuan and 149 minutes of running time, plus the genre of the main theme war film, still have certain challenges for ordinary viewers.In addition, there are no heavy industry films with strong audio-visual properties during this year’s Spring Festival. However, the average ticket price of “Four Ocean”, “The Professional” and “Miracle · Stupid Child” is also between 56.5-59 yuan, which is also a puzzle for many ordinary audiences.02 Can not only rely on “Watergate Bridge” “safeguard” the whole market depends on the whole season can push up the heat.This year’s Spring Festival, first of all, the overall popularity is not enough, “Watergate Bridge” after the release, basically firmly occupy the top of the data, the rest of the film compared with the previous Spring Festival films, there is a certain gap in popularity, which also makes this year’s Spring Festival seems to be “more than one strong” set.But more importantly, the lack of popularity and rising ticket prices will make it difficult to keep attracting audiences for multiple films this year.For example, although “Watergate Bridge” and “Sniper” have completely different entry points, they both belong to war films with the main theme. How to relieve the audience’s genre fatigue is actually a big problem.Of the five live-action films slated for this year’s Spring Festival, only “The Professional” is a strong comedy.Although the Spring Festival has long ceased to be a single “family celebration”, it still plays a very important role.As the market a few years ago too much attention to the word of mouth, so that the type of “basic plate” in the market was ignored.For single pieces, there is no such thing as a family dominating the Spring Festival.However, for the schedule, if the Spring Festival period is lack of enough “family” supply, may cause a certain hidden trouble on the party.In 2018, “Operation Red Sea” won the title, but in the same category, “Chinatown Detective 2”, “Monster Hunt 2”, “Journey to the West” have obvious “family” attributes. Under the guarantee of basic market demand, the genre and word-of-mouth advantages make “Operation Red Sea” become a dark horse.In 2019, “The Wandering Earth” made a successful comeback, but “Crazy Aliens”, “Pegasus” full of “energy”, also ensure the whole season of “family demand”.In 2021, the market remembered that “Hello, Li Huanying” quickly overtook “Detective Chinatown 3”, but “Hello, Li Huanying” itself is a combination of comedy and family love.But this year’s Spring Festival does not feature the “basic disc” of previous years.Although the opening score of the five live-action films on ticket purchasing platforms all reached “double 9 points”, the relatively low popularity in the early stage and its genre appeal make it very difficult to overcome the influence of high ticket prices on the audience.This Spring Festival season, fortunately, the overall quality of the film is very impressive.However, to maximize the box office of the entire period, the film obviously needs to continue to work hard on the follow-up popularity.